The Hatch Report (Issue #21)

Mar 03, 2025

1) Army RFI/Survey for $14B (est) Common Tactical Truck (CTT) Program

Big emphasis on commonality with commercial platforms and supply chains. Requirements still in progress, but strong need for improved driver safety, cybersecurity, autonomy, fuel efficiency, off-road mobility, and predictive logistics. Lots of opportunities for companies innovating in these areas.

Survey Deadline: 20 March.
Draft RFP for industry review: September 2025 (Tentative)
Industry Day: October 2025 (Tentative)
Final RFP release: Q3 FY26 (Tentative)

THR’s Take and Broader Thoughts on Future Force Designs

Potential Headwinds

A reassessment of CTT’s program timeline and procurement quantities—estimated at 40,000 trucks—could be on the horizon. I’m not unaware of any formal reevaluation, but budget constraints, recent SECDEF guidance, the INDOPACOM pivot, and an evolving threat landscape all point to program adjustments. The FY26 PBR, expected this month, should provide some clarity into CTT's future. That said, tactical ground-based logistics enablers remain vital, but a smaller, more autonomous fleet with integrated self-protection systems feels like a logical outcome. Ultimately, Congress has the final say, which bodes well for the CTT program.

Separately, U.S.-Europe geopolitical dynamics are worth monitoring, as they could influence industry teaming arrangements.

The Changing Threat Environment

By the early to mid-2030s, I anticipate the forward line of contact becoming too dangerous for Soldiers and crewed systems in certain scenarios. Advances in edge AI and resilient tactical-level mesh networking will enable larger, more lethal “smart swarms” of low-cost UAVs and PGMs. These swarms will saturate future battlefields, autonomously identifying and striking targets with unprecedented precision and speed—akin to what we’re seeing in Ukraine but orders of magnitude more advanced.

Despite valid counterarguments, the disruptive potential of smart swarms is hard to overstate, particularly for militaries that lack the human capital and expertise required for dynamic, large-scale joint operations. I’d argue the advantages of smart swarms are so significant that our adversaries, particularly China, will invest whatever it takes to overcome the obstacles delaying their large-scale deployment.

These challenges are not insignificant—you actually have to get these swarms into the fight at scale, continue advancing edge AI and computing power, and ensure intra-swarm C2 doesn’t break down, especially in dense urban environments. These are tall orders indeed, but far from insurmountable, especially for a country like China.

These swarms will also have to contend with increasingly advanced DE, HPM, and EW defenses. However, as swarms adopt greater localized autonomy, EW-based defenses will become less effective and could inadvertently degrade friendly C2.

While DE and HPM systems offer a favorable cost-exchange ratio, their high power demands raise doubts about how long they can stay in the fight, especially when deployed on mobile platforms tasked with protecting constantly maneuvering ground units. Without a breakthrough in battery technology or rapid field-swapping capabilities, the effectiveness of EW and DE-based systems will see a precipitous drop-off as the battle wears on. Additionally, concerns remain about the durability and reliability of DE/HPM systems under prolonged battlefield conditions.

Ultimately, a fully mobilized wartime China has the capacity to produce smart swarms at an industrial scale. It’s hard to see how defensive systems wouldn’t be overwhelmed in the opening stages of a battle. Once that tipping point is reached, the rate of attrition will quickly become unsustainable.

The Need for a Fundamental Shift in Ground Maneuver Warfare

To counter these threats, ground maneuver force designs must be fundamentally reimagined. Just as small arms advancements rendered linear warfare and line infantry tactics obsolete, future smart swarms could similarly disrupt today’s platform-centric ground formations.

The Army and USMC have already acknowledged that the future lies in human-machine integrated formations and are moving in that direction. However, given the rapidly evolving threat environment, this transition must accelerate significantly in both scale and speed. Securing funding remains a major challenge, as entrenched interests continue to back legacy programs and existing modernization efforts.

Decisions on the most prudent modernization path often come down to risk tolerance and opportunity costs. In a zero-sum budget environment, prioritizing autonomous systems could delay the modernization of next-generation crewed platforms. If autonomy underperforms or is easily countered, this shift could widen capability gaps, putting forces at even greater risk.

Conversely, if the anticipated smart swarm threat does indeed materialize, investments in inherently unsurvivable crewed systems would become a sunk cost, further delaying the development and deployment of autonomous capabilities better suited for future conflicts.

Idea for a Panel Discussion

Bringing together key stakeholders like RAND’s Arroyo Center, the Army’s M-CDID, and the USMC’s Warfighting Lab for a candid discussion on their approach to modeling these types of trade-space decisions—and the inherent difficulties in doing so—would be fascinating. In addition to threat environment and technology considerations, it would be helpful to understand how their approaches incorporate long-term budget projections and economic forecasting—specifically, when and how these factors begin to really impact force design discussions. In this regard, involving experts from CAPE and economists could help round out such a panel.

At its core, force design is a multidisciplinary challenge that requires input from military planners, economists, technologists, and industry leaders. Effectively integrating these perspectives is essential for making informed, strategic decisions that strike the optimal balance between capability and long-term feasibility. At the same time, the process must not succumb to analysis paralysis. The need to adapt dynamically—keeping pace with accelerating technological advancements and evolving threats—has never been more difficult.

The overarching goal of this panel idea is to hear directly from force design practitioners on what they see as the biggest shortcomings of the current process and their ideas for improvement.

NOTE: I’d like to highlight a 2022 Hudson Institute report, "Applying New Metrics to Build an Adaptable and Resilient Military," which shaped much of my thinking on this topic. It’s well worth a read.

2) USMC RFI for Long Range Tactical (LRT) UAS

The USMC requires a ruggedized, immediately deployable UAS for Reconnaissance, Surveillance, and Target Acquisition (RSTA) during day and night operations across diverse environments.

Key Specifications:

Platform: Small UAS (max gross takeoff weight < 55 lbs), Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) capable from a 40’x40’ area surrounded by 50’ obstacles on uneven terrain.
Performance: Minimum 8-hour endurance, 60 km line-of-sight range, and RSTA capability at 60 km.
Power: Electric motor (non-internal combustion) using batteries, fuel cells (e.g., hydrogen, propane), or alternative charging technologies.
Payload: Dual-mode gimbaled EO/IR sensors, with modular/open architecture supporting multiple payloads, including third-party integrations.
Operation: Autonomous or manual launch/recovery in confined spaces, with a man-portable Ground Control Station (GCS) for sensor control and monitoring.
Readiness: Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 8+ for immediate production and fielding; compliant with the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) 2024.

Submission Deadline: 14 April.

3) JPEO A&A Solicitation for Autonomous Delivery Of Precision Neutralization Of Explosive Hazards

Seeking a scalable, modular, automated system to remotely neutralize IEDs, mines, and obstacles with precision from a safe standoff, integrating with vehicles, UAS, and UGVs. The Problem: Manual breaching is outdated and dangerous; modern threats need fast, accurate solutions in GPS-denied, degraded environments. Context: Must clear 4.5m x 150m lanes rapidly, at low cost, across all terrains, with contracts expected by July 1, 2025.

Industry Day: March 4-5
Registration Deadline: 2 March

4) USAF’s ABMS CFT RFI for Decision Advantage Sprint for Human-Machine Teaming (DASH)

The DASH event seeks to accelerate BMC2 decision-cycles with advanced AI automation tools. Participants will watch real-time scenarios, build and improve AI applications alongside operators, and test their solutions in live experiments.

When: 31 March - 11 April 2025
Where: Howard Hughes Operations Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Apply By: 7 March 2025, with selected participants notified by 11 March 2025

5) DARPA Q&A from Kallisti Industry Day Just Posted

Kallisti will combine advanced AI-driven models with human expertise in simulation environments to predict adversary behavior and generate COAs based on those predictions. Kallisti aims to anticipate and outpace adversary decision-making cycles.

THR’s Take

Beyond DoD, Kallisti could help U.S. companies in critical industries gain a competitive edge in global markets. Developing partnership models that give industry access to this simulation environment could broaden its impact as part of a larger geo-economic strategy.

Outside Kallisti, the private sector is likely already investing heavily in similar technologies to enhance business intelligence and strategic decision-making. Major financial institutions, law firms, and top consulting firms come to mind. DoD should continue exploring collaboration opportunities with the commercial sector to accelerate the development of these predictive technologies.

Most Interesting Aspects/Findings from the 18-Page Q&A

Government-Controlled Simulation Environment – Performers must use the DARPA-provided simulation environment for evaluations, which is hosted on Gov-Cloud. The government team (AFRL and others) is developing the environment, and performers may propose additional approaches, but evaluations will be conducted within the government framework.
Emphasis on Novel AI Approaches – The program is open to diverse AI approaches, including numerical models and pre-trained models, but emphasizes novel solutions for understanding and predicting adversary behavior. Explainability is of interest but not required.
Handling of Real-World vs. Simulated Data – All data in Phase 1 will be simulated, as real-world data is insufficient for generalization. Performers must design their solutions accordingly.
Flexible but Competitive Milestone-Based Payments – Payments follow DARPA’s OTA milestone structure, meaning performers must structure their proposals to align with the milestone schedule. Additional milestones can be proposed to ensure smoother cash flow.
Modeling of Adversarial Behavior – The program explicitly includes modeling irrational adversary behavior and cognitive factors. Adversaries will not be predefined and must be inferred based on available information.
Potential for Future Transition – While DARPA does not guarantee transition pathways, successful performers may have opportunities to engage with end users beyond DARPA. Companies should be prepared to align their solutions with broader DoD needs.

6) Navy RFI - Weapon Autonomy Application For Helicopters (WAAH)

Seeking databases of labeled or unlabeled real-life training data from an air-to-surface perspective, ideally with water-based backgrounds. Relevant labeled data may include boats (various classes), humans, buoys, jet skis, etc. Additionally, interested in processes for rapid and effective automatic data labeling. If real-life training data is unavailable, hybrid, synthetic, or raw datasets will do.

Response Deadline: 20 March

7) DARPA Industry Day for a Semi-Autonomous Surface Platform Program

Program Overview: The Pulling Guard program aims to develop and demonstrate a semi-autonomous platform to enhance the survivability of unarmed logistics vessels, primarily against uncrewed surface vehicle (USV) threats. A remote supervisor retains authority over engagement decisions, while the system is designed with sufficient autonomy to enable secure, remote supervision of multiple platforms.

Modularity and Market Expansion: The program prioritizes modularity to drive a rapid, ongoing development cycle that adapts to emerging threats. This approach also expands the addressable market by enabling tailored variants that meet statutory and regulatory compliance requirements for export, unlocking broader commercial and international opportunities.

Program Phases

Development Phase (18 months): Covered by the initial Broad Agency Announcement (BAA).
Integration, Manufacturing, and Commercial Transition Phase (21 months): Covered by a second BAA, with a reduced number of participants from the first phase.

Industry Day Details

Date: 18 March
Location: In-Person, Arlington, VA
Registration Deadline: 11 March

8) Army Project Director-Sensors-Aerial Intelligence RFI for Virtual Aerial Systems Trainer (VAST)

Problem: Current Aerial-ISR training relies on Operational Procedural Trainers (OPTs) and classroom methods, which are costly, time-consuming, and constrained by equipment, instructor availability, and classroom size.
Objective: Seeking industry input on commercial or government off-the-shelf (COTS/GOTS) solutions for a Virtual Aerial Systems Trainer (VAST) to modernize AISR training.
Capabilities Sought: High-fidelity digital training environments enabling multi-trainee and instructor collaboration from any location.
Scope: Supports training for airframe, pilot tasks, crew drill tasks, and sensor Non-Rated Crew Member (NRCM) tasks across multiple aircraft platforms.
Requirements: Must facilitate realistic coordination between cockpit and cabin crews, simulate mission-critical scenarios, and enhance cognitive skill development.
Response Deadline: 13 March

9) DAF, RFI for Qualification of Additive Manufacturing Vendors for Airworthiness Parts

Problem: The U.S. Air Force requires a standardized process to qualify Additive Manufacturing (AM) vendors for flight-critical parts, ensuring compliance with airworthiness and safety standards.
Objective: Seeking industry input on procedures for evaluating AM vendor qualifications, focusing on quality management, material compliance, process validation, design capabilities, and regulatory adherence.
Capabilities Sought: Vendors must demonstrate compliance with FAA, NASA, DoD, and NIST standards, including ISO/ASTM certifications, cybersecurity protocols, non-destructive inspection methods, and traceability requirements.
Scope: The information gathered will inform the development of a qualified AM vendor list for producing airworthy aircraft components, enhancing operational readiness and supply chain resilience.
Submission Deadline: 22 April 22

10) Office of Strategic Capital SSN for FTE Support

FTEs would help manage fund intake, evaluation, due diligence, and oversight while delivering financial modeling, market analysis, and strategic guidance. It is open to SDVOSB.

Response Deadline: 10 March

11) NGA RFI for Software Development Services (SABER III)

Purpose: Expand NGA’s DevCorps division with contractor-provided software developers to design, develop, test, deploy, and maintain applications supporting GEOINT capabilities, including analytics, data management, system integration, and security compliance.
Development Approach: Adheres to NGA’s “Software Way” and DevCorps standards, leveraging Agile methodologies, CI/CD best practices, and DevSecOps principles. Development will integrate COTS, GOTS, open-source software, and NGA’s DevOps toolkit to enhance operational effectiveness.
Duration and Location: 60-month ordering period. Primary work location is NGA facilities in St. Louis, MO, with potential assignments in Springfield, VA, or contractor-provided facilities. Telework is permitted on a case-by-case basis, subject to government approval and strict security requirements.
Response Deadline: 11 March.

12) DISA, AOI for Next Generation Special Access Programs (NG-SAP)

Objective: Establish a managed service model for SAP IT, integrating cloud-based Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI), secure communications, identity management, and cross-domain solutions.
Problem Addressed: Current SAP IT infrastructure is fragmented, outdated, and not aligned with DoD strategies (Zero Trust, Cloud, AI).
Desired Capabilities: VDI, ICAM, secure email/voice/video, file/print services, automated cyber monitoring, and a cross-domain data-sharing solution.
Follow-On Potential: Prototype OT may lead to a follow-on production contract without further competition.
Restrictions: No academic or reseller proposals; preference for commercially viable, adaptable solutions.
Response Deadline: 28 February

13) DARPA Information Session - The Right Space (TRS)

TRS will develop new mathematical approaches that transform complex systems into simpler representations. These advances will make difficult modeling problems easier to solve, faster to compute, and more interpretable. They are critical for improving DoD applications like wargaming scenarios, aerospace simulations, and material mechanics.

Registration Deadline: 5 March

Event Date (Virtual): 12 March

14) USAF Operational Energy Office (SAF/IE) CSO Seeks Efficient Dual-Use Turbofan Engine for C-17

Soliciting concepts for a dual-use turbofan engine (35,000-50,000 lbs thrust) to enhance airlift efficiency for both military (e.g., C-17 Globemaster) and commercial aircraft, including blended wing body (BWB) designs.

Key Requirements:

Emissions Compliance: Must meet current and anticipated future emissions standards.
SAF Compatibility: Must be capable of using up to 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
Entry Into Service: Targeted for no later than 2030.
Production Ramp-Up: Scale to 80 engines/month by 2037 (supporting 40 aircraft/month).
Cost-Sharing Encouraged: Industry partners are expected to share development costs, leveraging a $35-40 billion market opportunity through 2045.

Response Deadline: February 2026

15) DARPA Solicitation for Bioelectronic Smart Bandage Development (BEST)

Purpose: Develop an automated bioelectronic smart bandage to predict, prevent, and treat wound infections, deployable across military medical care levels, including battlefields.
Key Features: Must monitor wounds continuously, predict infections, and deliver targeted treatments via closed-loop control; target TRL-6 by program end.
Funding and Awards: Approximately $22.8M available for multiple awards; uses Other Transaction for Prototype agreements.
Program Structure: 36 months total, split into Phase I (24 months, independent sensor/treatment development) and Phase II (12 months, integrated system).
Submission Deadline: Full proposals due 6 May.

16) JCO - Industry Questionnaire for C-UXS Technology

Based on the questions, DoD appears to be particularly interested in the following attributes:

Only considering capabilities at TRL 5 or higher; TRL 4 and below need not respond.
Prioritizing non-destructive, precise countermeasures that minimize risks to friendly forces and civilians.
Seeking mission-flexible systems that can adapt to different operational needs with modular and swappable payloads.
Interest in easy compatibility with DoD systems via standardized interfaces for seamless integration.
Interest in AI-driven autonomy, automatic target recognition, and decision aids to enhance usability and reduce operator burden.
Evaluating affordability at different scales (1, 10, 100 units) with rental, leasing, and purchase options to meet diverse operational demands.
Considering lifecycle costs, including maintenance, annual licenses, logistics, and mission-specific expense variables for long-term sustainability.

17) Georgia Army National (GAARNG) Guard PWS for Digital Marketing and Geofencing Services

Objective: Boost recruitment through advanced digital advertising strategies. The campaign emphasizes engaging 17——to 24-year-olds.
Geofencing Details: Target specific locations (e.g., 67 high schools with 1-mile radius) as defined by GAARNG; deliver 1,000,000 impressions and 250,000 clicks per area; adjust radius, targets, and duration per GAARNG direction.
Deliverables: Weekly impression reports, lead capture (name, birthdate, phone, email, zip), integrate GAARNG-provided creatives and tracking links.
Period of Performance: Starts 1 May, with four optional years; contractor ensures quality and compliance.
Response Deadline: 3 March

Industry Activity

18) Shield AI and L3Harris Partner on Advanced Autonomy

L3Harris’ DiSCO™, a software-defined electromagnetic battle management system, will integrate with Shield AI’s Hivemind autonomy software. This collaboration aims to rapidly detect, analyze, and respond to threat signals.

19) Newly Formed Seagate Space Corporation to Develop Offshore Rocket Platforms

By utilizing the ocean for space launches, the company aims to overcome land-based constraints and support the growing demand for frequent and responsive space access. Seagate Space is currently in discussions with potential launch partners for a demonstration mission targeting early 2026.

20) Auburn secures $11.4M DOD contract for critical space defense project

MDA’s contact with Auburn’s Applied Research Institute (AUARI) will help establish a radiation hardening facility in Huntsville, AL, addressing a shortage of such infrastructure in the U.S. The facility will support MDA in testing critical microelectronics.

21) Army Implements Valid Eval Enterprise Licensing

Under this SBIR Phase III contract, Valid Eval can license its platform with a funding ceiling of $1.5 million through March 2026. The company offers a secure SaaS solution for managing complex group evaluations.

22) Mimic, a Ransomware Defense Company, Secures $50M Series A Led by Google Ventures & Menlo Ventures

Additional participation from existing investors Ballistic Ventures, Team8, Wing Ventures, and Shield Capital. The company also introduced a new feature allowing customers to safely simulate ransomware attacks. Founded in 2023, Mimic is HQ’d in Palo Alto.

23) US Critical Materials Confirms Nation's Highest-Grade Rare Earth and Gallium Deposit

The rare earth exploration company announced verified results from its Sheep Creek deposit in Montana, showing gallium grades of 180 to 385 ppm—far above the 50 ppm the U.S. imports, mostly from China. The company also extended its CRADA with Idaho National Laboratory through February 2027 for further research.

24) Kodiak Appoints Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Ross Coffman as Strategic Advisor, Launches Defense Advisory Council

The autonomous ground transportation company already partners with the U.S. Army on its RCV program and with Textron on their RIPSAW® M3. The two companies are actively exploring opportunities with U.S. and allied militaries for M3. Since its founding in 2018, Kodiak became the first company to deliver a fully driverless semi-truck to a customer in 2024. The newly established Defense Advisory Council will focus on guiding Kodiak's strategy and technology deployment within DoD.

25) Xona Secures $4.65M AFRL Contract to Test LEO GPS Alternative in Commercial Devices

Xona will demonstrate its PULSAR™ navigation service on multiple commercial devices in scenarios where GPS/GNSS signals may be compromised or unavailable. For this contract, Xona has partnered with QinetiQ, StarNav, and Locus Lock, who can rapidly produce and deploy PULSAR-enabled devices to showcase performance with the service.

26) Lockheed Martin, Nokia, and Verizon Advance Defense Capabilities Through 5G.MIL® Collaboration

Enables seamless interoperability between commercial 5G and military communication systems.

27) RTX's Raytheon demonstrates first-ever AI/ML-powered Radar Warning Receiver for 4th generation aircraft

The Cognitive Algorithm Deployment System, known as CADS, combines the latest Embedded Graphics Processing Unit with Deepwave Digital's computing stack, enabling AI models to be integrated into Raytheon's legacy RWR systems for AI/ML processing at the sensor. This integration allows CADS to employ cognitive methods to sense, identify and prioritize threats.

28) NIWC- Pacific Sole Source Zapata Technology, Inc. for Secure Integration of Naval Maintenance Systems

What’s Being Acquired: Demo licenses and 3-month support (3/1/2025–6/1/2025) for NiFi, a data flow tool, and MongoDB, a database for managing synchronized data, from Zapata Technology to test secure integration of Naval Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (N-MRO) and Relational Supply (Rsupply) systems.
Why It’s Needed: To enable secure, seamless data exchange (e.g., stock and material requests) between N-MRO’s JSON-based system and Rsupply’s SOAP-based system, ensuring operational readiness with strong security (mTLS) and auditing capabilities.
Why Sole-Source: The specialized needs—multi-protocol handling, secure communication, and compatibility with existing systems—combined with time sensitivity and Zapata’s demonstrated success (e.g., U.S. Army projects) justify limiting competition to ensure operational readiness.

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