The Hatch Report (Issue #4)
Today's issue recaps last week's HASC hearing with industry executives. Also included are 26 "Industry Activity" updates, 10 DoD RFIs/RFPs, news content summaries, and some events that caught my eye.
Legislative Updates
1. Recap of Last week’s HASC hearing - CEOs/executives from Skydio, Shield AI, Palantir, Applied Intuition, and Saildrone provided their perspectives on DoD acquisition. My top takeaways:
Giving CCMDs Buying Power: Chairman Rogers supports the idea / already has a dollar amount in mind. One witness suggested 2-5% of DoD topline. Ranking Member Smith not supportive. (Also need support from SAC-D/HAC-D)
Note - Reminded of CCDR Initiative Fund (CCIF) / Defense-Wide O&M J-Book. Seeks to give CCDRs greater flexibility to solve emergent challenges, including “joint warfighting capabilities”. Only $2.9M request, but something to build on potentially. A comprehensive assessment of CCMD budget trends/authorities would be interesting.
Sufficient Demand Signal vs Budget Flexibility: Important call out from Ranking Member Smith on this dichotomy / struggled to see how you can have both.
Defining “Demand Singal”: IMO, will vary based on hardware vs software. Traditional demand signal = enduring PoR in the PB with Approps on board. Important for hardware companies that have to justify CapEx / secure long-lead items. For software companies, more about Mr. Sankar’s “fiscal OODA loop” i.e., how easily/quickly a government customer can make a new fiscal purchase.
Hot Take: Policymakers need a more objective way to measure YoY progress on DoD’s modernization/innovation efforts. There should be a widely endorsed list of reasonable goals and “metrics that matter” that are actively tracked/circulated to help focus the discussion i.e., what’s innovation theater / what really matters/are we getting better / why / why not, etc. I’d limit it to the 3 to 5 most important metrics. A couple very nascent examples for the sake of discussion:
% of topline budget aligned to highly flexible, enduring, cross-service problem-based portfolios, e.g., c-UAS / small unit precision strike.
Average time to close capability gaps (measured in months)
DoD investment in VC-backed companies (by stage) as a % of total topline.
Increasing % of DoD budget going to procurement funding/decrease in RDT&E.
NOTE - Be sure to check out the AC’s Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption Final Report for some other sources of inspiration.
2. CRS just released a helpful summary of FY25 Defense Approps funding. Includes a breakdown of FRA implications. To comply with the caps, House / Senate FY25 DoD 302b allocations = $833B/$ 831B respectively (roughly 1% growth vs FY24’s $825B topline). However, SAC-D included an additional $21B in “emergency requirements” exempt from FRA caps, totaling $852B / + 3.3% vs FY24. Similar to OCO approach for getting around BCA caps.
3. Lastly, the Brennan Center for Justice has created a helpful AI Legislation Tracker.
Top Stories
4. Rand Forecasting Initiative (RFI) - Novel crowdsourced forecasting tool that helps decision-makers anticipate the future. RFI gathers requests from decision-makers that are then refined into precise subquestions to ensure the most actionable insights are delivered. These answers are aggregated and analyzed to give decision-makers insights and allow for updates as circumstances change. The top trending question is if Israel will declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months (with a crowd forecast of 41%.) See infographic at bottom of this email for a helpful process breakdown.
5. Navy “Catapult” BAA Launching Next Month - Essentially, additional SBIR Phase II funding to mature/accelerate the transition of promising tech (working closely with PEOs). Open to any SBIR awardee (not just Navy) with tech relevant to the BAA topics. Navy will seek up to $15M SBA waiver for most promising tech / also seeking co-investment from entities like OSC/DIU. Pre-release on 2 OCT/AMA on 9 OCT.
6. Army’s New Drone Unit - The Lethal Unmanned Systems (LUS) platoon sits within the Multi-Purpose Company (MPC). The MPC’s four platoons—scout, mortar, anti-tank, and LUS—replace the old heavy weapons companies, which were downgraded to platoons in February. All part of the Army’s “Transformation in Contact” initiative rolled out this past FEB.
NOTE - Nine of the LUS platoon’s 21 soldiers fly drones. But unlike the Ukrainians, the LUS drone operators cannot directly stream their video to other soldiers. Instead, they must rely on an attached fire control officer to radio to the mortar section where they are seeing the rounds land. Similarly, LUS soldiers must upload data to battle-management systems to share it with commanders, in contrast to the banks of live drone video feeds that Ukrainian commanders use to survey the battlefield.
7. USMA launches “West Point Werx Innovation Hub” - Serves as the front door to the Academy’s Office of Research.
8. EU Considering Joint Bonds to Bolster Defense Industry - Idea floated by Andrius Kubilius, EU’s first defense chief / former Lithuanian PM. Seeking to raise an additional $550B to get EU DIB up to speed.
9. Vanderbilt University launches Institute of National Security - led by Paul Nakasone (former NSA / Cyber Command Director). Was created to help the government and military combat evolving threats and develop the next generation of national security leaders. Exact dates for the spring 2025 Summit on Modern Conflict and Emerging Threats will be announced soon.
10. USN looking to RoK to Increase Battleforce Ships - Interesting piece from WSJ. 10 U.S. Code § 8679 prevents DoD from buying vessels (or major hull/superstructure components) that are produced in foreign shipyards. RoK’s HHI purportedly able to build Destroyers for a fraction of the cost / much faster compared to US analogs (18 months vs 28 months). HHI leverages commercial prowess to generate efficiencies on the naval side.
11. Replicator Updates - During AFA, PACAF indicated they’ve not yet developed CONOPS or maintenance plans for Replicator systems.
12. AIRC requesting proposals for “Innovation Projects” - Open to accredited U.S. universities. Apps due by 15 OCT 2025. Lots of interesting topics, including Digital transformation activities and enablers to improve acquisition and sustainment.
13. USAF Establishes Integrated Development Office (IDO) Under AFMC - Part of the Reoptimizion for Great Power Competition initiative. Will work closely with the Integrated Capabilities Command (ICC) to acquire capabilities faster.
14. PRC Experiment Picks up Stealth Targets using Starlink EM Radiation - When an aircraft passes through the airspace between communication satellites and ground antennas, it can scatter some of the electromagnetic waves emitted by the satellites. These waves, also known as forward scatter, can disturb normal communication signals. Scientists can analyze these small disturbances to identify and track a target of interest.
NOTE - Still in the early S&T phase. Tracking stealth is one thing, a weapons-grade fire control solution is another. Some suggest this approach is inherently impractical due to the number of satellites required. That said, will be interesting to see how this tech / other space-based counter-stealth efforts mature over next 5-10 years. Makes one postulate on the relevance of B-21/other 5th-gen post-2035/40.
15. Estonia seeks battlefield decoys to sponge up Russian missiles - Tallinn expects to spend $10 million on the purchase.
NOTE - DoD also needs similar decoys to confuse enemy AI-targeting/deplete magazine depth. Important to better understand employment concepts / how they're integrated into operational units. Should be a growing market given the need but unclear if DoD will be able to align sufficient resources.
16. DAF DTO announces initial open-source release of the Cyber Data Schema (CDS) - Available now on GitHub under the Apache-2.0 license! Facilitates cybersecurity assessment and authorization products and processes.
17. AFRL creating digital talent management system - The AI-enabled platform, called GigEagle, is DoD’s First national talent marketplace.
18. Launch of Texas Scale-Up Coalition - Partnership between the Texas Association of Business and the Texas Venture Alliance. Will connect startups, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists to work on projects.
19. Updates to Army SBIR/STTR Programs - AR 70-79 (released back in AUG) cements ASA(ALT) as the Army’s lead proponent for the SBIR/STTR programs and overseer of Army R&D/S&T. Of note, ASA(ALT) is to appoint and delegate authorities to an Army SBIR/STTR Program Director who will, among other duties, designate SBIR/STTR portfolio manager(s), if applicable and establish/maintain a business process automation tool for tracking and reporting relevant SBIR/STTR data and IP.
Industry Activity
20. Array Labs - Developing small satellites for near real-time 3D mapping of the entire world at high resolution (20cm) / NIIR 6 according to ChatGPT. For context, here’s a phenomenal primer on the National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scale (NIIRS).
NOTE - Traditional 3D map generation relies on multiple satellite passes to photograph the same image/geographic location from different angles. More prone to image distortion/takes longer to synchronize satellite passes. Array’s satellite constellations would capture all the images simultaneously in a single pass.
21. Textron Systems - J&A from PMA-263 for UAS ISR services on board three ships in the 5th Fleet AOR for up to 60 months. PMA-263 has been managing similar services since 2005. Interesting background on the competition which included vendors from then Martin UAV, Arcturus, and L3Harris. Total contract value = $47M.
22. Kongsberg (Norway) - Establishing JSM / NSM production/repair facility near Norfolk/Hampton Roads in Virginia. Kongsberg has a big partnership with RTX.
23. L3Harris - Interview with CEO. 2% - 8% ownership in 40 high-tech defense companies (strategic partner with Shield Capital). Supports DOD moving towards a “commercial model” (not sure what that means exactly). 20% of L3’s revenue comes from the "commercial business model”, partly why L3 has highest margins in the defense industry. Subcontractor to Palantir on Army TITAN program (offered best chance to win). Thinks DoD topline will grow regardless of POTUS / who controls Congress (topline driven by threat).
24. Palantir - Awarded $99M Army R&D IDIQ for User-Centered Machine Learning (UCML). Transforms models from walled-off, isolated entities that are trained and deployed in slow cycles into live, dynamic solutions that users can improve in seconds.
25. goTenna - Awarded $15M AFWERX STRATFI SBIR Contract for CoTS mesh radio capabilities. Also announced an investment by Vanedge Capital in their ongoing Series 1 fundraise.
26. Anduril / Microsoft - Lattice has been incorporated into IVAS 1.1 and 1.2. Important development as Army gears up for “IVAS-Next” competition.
27. Microsoft / BlackRock - Launching Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership, i.e., a $30B fund for things like data centers and energy projects. MGX, the Abu Dhabi-backed investment company, will be a general partner in the fund, while Nvidia will provide expertise. The partnership will mobilize up to $100 billion in total investment potential when including debt financing. Investments will be chiefly in the US and the remainder in its partner countries.
28. Antares - Awarded 3 SBIR PIIs worth $3.75M with the AFWERX to accelerate the development of their microreactor, designed to power critical infrastructure and capabilities both terrestrial and in space.
29. Twelve - Raises $645M to turn CO2 into sustainable jet fuel. The new funding will enable the company to finish construction of its first commercial-scale “AirPlant” in Washington State. The facility will produce E‑Jet®, Twelve’s sustainable aviation fuel made from waste CO2, water, and renewable energy.
30. Ursa Major - $12.5M joint investment from Office of Strategic Capital and US Navy to mature their Lynx solid rocket motor (SRM) manufacturing process. Ursa Major will match the DoD investment for a total of $25M.
31. Honeywell - Launches stationary and mobile C-UAS / swarm systems. Selected by STRIKEWERX/AFWERX for Jan 2025 demonstration. System was developed by integrating components from Blue Halo, Leonardo DRS, Pierce Aerospace, Silent Sentinel, Walaris, Rocky Research, and Versatol.
32. HII - Their FortisAI achieved “Awardable” status on CDAO’s Tradewinds Marketplace. The tech employs NLP tech based on ML to augment analyst teams in sorting and connecting information and insights for a wide range of global missions.
33. Albedo - Awarded SpaceWERX TACFI to study how their Clarity-1 Sattelite can enhance Space Domain Awareness of objects in multiple orbits, leveraging their thermal sensor and precision pointing capabilities. Y-Combinator alum, secured $35M Series A-1 back in Jan. Standard Investments led the round, included new investors Booz Allen Ventures, Cubit Capital, and Bill Perkins.
34. HavocAI - A leading innovator in autonomous uncrewed surface vessel technology, announced the successful closing of an $11M Seed round led by Scout Ventures, co-led by Trousdale Ventures, and saw additional participation from Outlander VC, The Veteran Fund, BV.VC, Decisive Point, Alumni Ventures, and New North Ventures.
35. Qlik - announced that its analytics and data integration solutions are now listed in the AWS Marketplace for the U.S. Intell Community (ICMP). ICMP makes it easy to discover, purchase, and deploy software packages and applications from vendors that specialize in supporting USG customers.
36. Blueflite - Awarded DOT P1 SBIR for a done-based blood delivery system. Effort will address technical, regulatory, and operational aspects, laying foundation for a potential Phase 2 initiative.
37. Apian / Wing (Alphabet’s drone company) - Participating in a six-month pilot program with UK NHS to deliver blood samples in London. Eventual goal is a highly automated, on-demand, drone delivery network for NHS.
38. Intuitive Machines - Stock jumps 40% after 5-year $150M NASA contract to build moon data satellites (TCV = $4.8B).
39. Caddis Cloud Solutions / IP3 Corporation - Collaborating to advance the integration of small modular nuclear reactors to power data centers.
40. Arizona State University - Awarded $4.3M DARPA OP-TEMPO contract, which seeks to develop the foundation for novel approaches to understand, model, and assess team dynamics during training.
41. Dridam Consulting LLC - Awarded $4.2M MDA contract for a technology demonstration effort focusing on next-gen, full-scale, digital prototyping capability. Will provide the capability to predict the performance of current, emerging, and future hypersonic vehicles.
42. Merlin - A leading developer of safe, autonomous flight technology for fixed-wing aircraft, announced the expansion of its C-suite to continue progressing the development, certification, and execution of the Merlin Pilot.
43. Hawkeye 360 - $9M FFP FMS Navy contract mod for commercial radio frequency data and analytics subscription products, analytical support, and training for identified end users in Southeast Asia.
44. Vector Atomic - $11M FFP contract from the Army for scaling manufacturing and affordability of resilient timing systems.
45. SolAero Technologies Corp - $3.6M award from AFRL Space Technology Branch for space solar power advancement for constellation-class expansion. $15M ceiling / cost-plus-fixed-fee contract through DEC 2029.
46. Great Lakes Crystal Technologies - Awarded $2.7M from DIU’s NSIC to scale the production of larger-sized diamond substrates for applications to next-generation microelectronics and sensors. NSIC focused on hardware/production investments.
Government Opportunities
47. Geoeconomic Modeling for National Security
DARPA Special Notice // Respones Due 15 OCT. The RFI focuses on three key aspects:
Geoeconomic Models: Capabilities, limitations, and challenges of existing models used to analyze economic activity and predict outcomes. This includes structured econometric models, semi-structured models, and agent-based models.
Data for Geoeconomic Modeling: Availability, quality, and limitations of data used to calibrate and train these models. The RFI acknowledges the challenge of accessing proprietary data and explores solutions.
User Interaction with Models: Best practices for integrating data analysis with the modeling process to support informed decision-making.
48. Center for Rapid Innovation - Rapid Experimentation and Prototyping
AFRL-RSC SSN // Responses due by 3 OCT
Trying to identify potential sources to serve as prime contractor to provide rapid experimentation and prototyping capability, including facilities, specialized fabrication equipment, and associated expertise.
49. Large Language Model Course of Action Analysis
Army D2P2 SBIR // Apps due by 1 OCT
$2M for an 18-month PoP. Basically, the goal is to generate faster / more dynamic CoAs than the adversary.
NOTE - Reminded me of one of my favorite podcasts ( The Crucible). Provides a relatively unique opportunity to hear directly from unit leaders (primarily at the Brigade-level and below) who candidly discuss their experiences “in the box”, aka the Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC). While mostly geared towards Soldiers/Units, individuals without military experience will find these insights equally valuable. As someone from the latter category, this podcast has deepened my appreciation for the critical importance and inherent complexity of mission planning.
Achieving mastery over the processes that enable the timely flow of relevant information up and down the chain of command is exceptionally challenging. The complexity is compounded by several factors: operational scale, degraded C2, the necessity to widely disperse forces, and the presence of a dynamic adversary. However, perfecting this orchestration allows leaders to make better-informed decisions faster than the opponent, while also enabling subordinate units to execute on commander’s intent. These are key differentiators of a truly professional Army. However, it’s important to consider how emerging technologies like AI, ML, and LLMs can help augment these processes.
50. Mach 7 Nozzle - Market Research for Other Transaction for Prototype Project
USAF Test Center SSN // Responses Due by 2 OCT
Vendors will compete to develop a successful business process and conceptual design as a prototype for developing a fixed area-ratio, true temperature, Mach 7 (M7) Free Jet Nozzle, and common hardware for hypersonic Test and Evaluation (T&E) mission durations at AEDC.
51. Unified Network Operations (UNO) / Multiple Award IDIQ (Part 2)
Army PEO C3T Updated Presolicitaion // The teaming arrangement list has been updated and Q&A responses posted.
UNO provides a suite of DoD Information Network Operations (DODINOPS) software (SW) applications that are interoperable, standards-based, and shared between the Integrated Enterprise Network (IEN) and Integrated Tactical Network (ITN).
52. Joint Challenge to identify novel UAS)communications technologies and counter-UAS technologies
DIU and ingapore’’s Ministry of Defence // Info session on 9 OCT // $300k prize pool
Proposed solutions must be able to notify operators upon the detection of a drone, safely disrupt unauthorized drones, operate in a tropical maritime environment, and demonstrate an ability to be integrated on a ship. Ideal solutions will also have a detection and engagement range of greater than one kilometer, a response time of less than one minute, and require minimal man-effort to operate.
53. DoD End-to-End Framework for Enhanced Innovative Capability Development (DEFEND) Software System
Special Notices // Responses due by 5 OCT
Looking for help capturing DoD “engineering-and-up” analytic, functional, and related requirements for a capability development eco-system of models and simulations (E-MS). Wants to apply an existing E-MS to explore DoD capability development in a functional and/or mission area of governmental interest (e.g., 2030+ Aerial Refueling Systems). Within the context of DOD’s broader campaign-and-below simulation architecture evolution, also wants to establish where and how best to develop and integrate a government-owned E-MS
54. DIGITAL DEPARTMENT (NDD) Support Services
NAVAIR Solicitation // Responses due by 18 OCT
Will be a five-year IDIQ for digital transformation planning and execution among a bunch of other things.
55. Provably Weird Network Deployment and Detection (PWND²)
DARPA Solicitation // Respones due by 5 NOV
Seek to develop formal models of emergent communication pathways to fundamentally improve how we deploy and detect robust and resilient hidden networks in the real world. The program will pair software-defined networking approaches with formal methods to provide provable privacy and performance guarantees for hidden communication systems at a meaningful scale.
USAF Test Pilot School Solicitation / Closed on 19 SEP.
Was seeking qualified contractors to support the development, instruction, and sustainment of curriculum focused on preparing graduates to test autonomous aircraft and data-driven mission systems.
Events
57. CSIS/Army UAS Roundtable with ASA(ALT) Hon. Bush and Gen. Rainey, U.S. AFC - 27 SEP at 3 pm (live stream). Topics will include defining requirements terminology to distinguish between terms like UAS and loitering munitions, identifying lessons from the Army's experience with UAS acquisition, and ensuring reconnaissance capability through the Future Tactical Unmanned Aircraft System (FTUAS). The discussion will also cover the Army's strategy for the Replicator and Launched Effects programs and insights from Ukraine's use of UAS to counter Russia's invasion.
58. AUVSI Defense 2024 Installment Three - 23 to 24 OCT at the MITRE Corporation in McLean, Virginia. The core programming emphasizes multi-domain rapid technology evolution and integration; the optimization of manufacturing and supply chain capacity; acquisition reform, procurement, and funding; and workforce development.
59. Human Machine Integration (HMI) Summit - 6-7 NOV at TAMU’s BCDC in Bryan, TX. Intent of the event is to demonstrate some of the current Government solutions for Human Machine Integrated Formations to Industry and Academia and discuss current standards and interfaces for hardware and software.
60. CDAO’s Vision for Open DAGIR - 27 SEP, 10am / virtual. Dcode fireside chat with Dr. Plumb (CDAO). DAIGER will be a multi-vendor ecosystem that enables industry and USG to integrate data platforms, development tools, services, and apps in a way that preserves USG data ownership and industry IP.
61. PEO Soldier Low Altitude Stalking and Striking Ordnance (LASSO) Industry Day - 29 - 31 OCT in Springfield Va (held at CUI level). Opportuinty for 1 on 1 prime vendor / USG sessions. There will also be dedicated space for subcontractors to meet with prime vendors. PEO Soldier will also conduct meetings with parties interested in the system architecture and common controller efforts.
62. DARPA Heimdall Industry Day - Virtual on 2 OCT (register by 27 SEP). Trying to develop/demonstrate secure AI/ML aids that enhance the effectiveness of naval gun systems solely through software updates inside the Mk 160 Gun Computer System onboard USN surface combatants.
63. DARPA Albatross Proposers Day - 2 OCT 8 am - 1 pm EST in Arlington Va. The Albatross program seeks to develop effective autonomous aircraft soaring capabilities. (25 SEP registration deadline).
64. DARPA Trenton Proposers Day - 10 OCT (unclass). Program seeks to enable underwater three-dimensional concrete printing (3DCP).
65. ATARC Quantum Speaker Series - 8 OCT at 1:30 ET. - webinar with Xanadu Founder & CEO, Christian Weedbrook, as he shares his journey and reveals Xanadu’s roadmap to 1 million qubits using light.
Infographics of Interest
RFI Forecasting In-Depth from #4
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